Yongin Mireu Stadium · Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
Yongin City vs Paju Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Yongin City and 1.35 for Paju Citizen, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Paju Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yongin City home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paju Citizen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paju Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 30% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Yongin City and 1.35 for Paju Citizen, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
Yongin City
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Daegu FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Suwon City FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Asan Mugunghwa · 1-2 (L)
Paju Citizen
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan I Park · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Daegu FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 54 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 5 | Busan I Park | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Hwaseong | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | -12 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -33 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.