York Lions Stadium · Analysis updated 01:26 UTC
York United vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for York United and 1.78 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives York United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
York United home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Ottawa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates York United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for York United and 1.78 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
York United
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
Atlético Ottawa
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Forge | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 58 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 4 | Supra du Quebec | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 6 | York United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -23 | 30 |
| 7 | HFX Wanderers FC | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 28 | 2 | 9 | 17 | -29 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.