York Lions Stadium · Referee Niko Jecanski, Canada · Analysis updated 08:56 UTC
York United vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for York United and 1.85 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives HFX Wanderers FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HFX Wanderers FC win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
York United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HFX Wanderers FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
York United
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
HFX Wanderers FC
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · H vs York United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · York United 1-4 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-08-16T20:00:00.000Z · York United 4-3 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · York United 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-04-11T19:00:00.000Z · York United 2-2 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-22T22:30:00.000Z · York United 2-2 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · York United 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-09-01T19:00:00.000Z · York United 0-4 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-31T23:00:00.000Z · York United 2-0 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-04-13T19:00:00.000Z · York United 1-2 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-10-19T20:00:00.000Z · York United 1-2 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HFX Wanderers FC win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.