York Lions Stadium · Referee R. Villanueva · Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
York United vs Supra du Quebec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for York United and 2.13 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Supra du Quebec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Supra du Quebec win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
York United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Supra du Quebec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Supra du Quebec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 34% / 21% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for York United and 2.13 for Supra du Quebec, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
York United
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 1-4 (L)
Supra du Quebec
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · York United 1-1 Supra du Quebec (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-29T23:00:00.000Z · York United 1-3 Supra du Quebec (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 40 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 33 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 27 |
| 7 | York United | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -16 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 25 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Supra du Quebec win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.