York Lions Stadium · Analysis updated 23:18 UTC
York United vs Vancouver FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for York United and 1.60 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives York United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
York United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
York United
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
Vancouver FC
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Forge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · York United 3-3 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · York United 3-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-07-04T23:00:00.000Z · York United 0-4 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-04-19T21:00:00.000Z · York United 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · York United 1-2 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-19T20:00:00.000Z · York United 4-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · York United 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T23:00:00.000Z · York United 2-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-07T02:00:00.000Z · York United 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-07-20T22:00:00.000Z · York United 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Forge | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 58 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 4 | Supra du Quebec | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 6 | York United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -23 | 30 |
| 7 | HFX Wanderers FC | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 28 | 2 | 9 | 17 | -29 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.