· Analysis updated 16:19 UTC
York vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for York and 3.08 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Al-Ettifaq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Ettifaq win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 3.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
York home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Ettifaq away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Ettifaq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 21% / 16% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for York and 3.08 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.7%
- 1–26.5%
- 2–36.0%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
York
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Northampton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gillingham · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 1-3 (L)
Al-Ettifaq
- 2026-09-11T15:25:00.000Z · A vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Faisaly FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Abha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · York 2-2 Al-Ettifaq (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Ettifaq win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.