York vs Northampton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for York and 0.73 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives York the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

York win

63.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

York home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Northampton away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates York to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 22% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for York and 0.73 for Northampton, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

York win64%

Draw22%

Northampton win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.2%
2–013.0%
1–110.3%
2–19.4%
3–07.9%

Recent form

York

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Northampton · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gillingham · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United U21 · 1-3 (L)

Northampton

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is York win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.