Wenchi Sports Stadium · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Young Apostles vs Hearts of Oak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.47 expected goals for Young Apostles and 1.33 for Hearts of Oak, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Hearts of Oak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hearts of Oak win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
0.47 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Young Apostles home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hearts of Oak away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hearts of Oak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 13% / 29% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.47 goals for Young Apostles and 1.33 for Hearts of Oak, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.9%
- 0–016.5%
- 0–214.6%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Young Apostles
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Swedru All Blacks · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Asante Kotoko · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aduana Stars · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samartex · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart of Lions · 1-2 (L)
Hearts of Oak
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Port City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dreams · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bechem United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bibiani Gold Stars · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Samartex | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Port City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Swedru All Blacks | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Aduana Stars | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Ashanti Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Karela | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Vision | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Debibi United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Dreams | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hearts of Oak win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.