Young Boys II vs Lugano II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Young Boys II and 2.50 for Lugano II, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Young Boys II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Young Boys II win

49.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Young Boys II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lugano II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Young Boys II win50%

Draw17%

Lugano II win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals79%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–25.7%
3–25.7%
2–34.8%
3–34.8%
2–14.6%

Recent form

Young Boys II

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paradiso · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schaffhausen · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amical Saint-Prex · 2-2 (D)

Lugano II

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paradiso · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schaffhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Young Boys II 3-1 Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion)
2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Young Boys II 6-0 Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion)
2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Young Boys II 3-2 Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion)
2025-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · Young Boys II 0-2 Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion)
2024-11-16T15:00:00.000Z · Young Boys II 3-0 Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion)
2024-02-17T14:00:00.000Z · Young Boys II 3-2 Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion)
2023-08-12T13:00:00.000Z · Young Boys II 1-0 Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion)

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Bulle	12	7	3	2	9	24
4	Paradiso	13	7	3	3	12	24
5	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	7	0	5	7	21
7	Basel II	13	6	1	6	0	19
8	YF Juventus	13	6	1	6	-1	19
9	Amical Saint-Prex	13	6	1	6	-7	19
10	Zürich II	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Breitenrain	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Brühl	13	5	2	6	-2	17
13	Kreuzlingen	12	4	3	5	0	15
14	Lugano II	12	4	0	8	-7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	3	3	6	-9	12
16	Bavois	12	2	2	8	-6	8
17	Bellinzona	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Luzern II	12	2	1	9	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Young Boys II win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.