Stadion Neufeld · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Young Boys W vs Basel W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Young Boys W and 1.21 for Basel W, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Young Boys W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Young Boys W win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Basel W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Young Boys W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Young Boys W and 1.21 for Basel W, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Young Boys W
Basel W
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette Chênois W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil Jona W · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Grasshopper W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 17 |
| 3 | Zürich W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Young Boys W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Basel W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yverdon W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Rapperswil Jona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Young Boys W win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.