Stadion Wankdorf · Analysis updated 11:41 UTC
Young Boys W vs Luzern W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Young Boys W and 1.26 for Luzern W, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Young Boys W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Young Boys W win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luzern W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Young Boys W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Young Boys W and 1.26 for Luzern W, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Young Boys W
Luzern W
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshopper W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aarau W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Gallen W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Young Boys W win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.