Jalan Besar Stadium · Analysis updated 07:42 UTC
Young Lions vs Home United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Young Lions and 2.47 for Home United, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Home United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home United win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 2.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Home United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Home United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 27% / 19% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Young Lions and 2.47 for Home United, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Young Lions
Home United
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Young Lions · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Công An Nhân Dân · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hougang United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata S | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home United win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.