Yozgat Sehir Stadyumu · Analysis updated 22:40 UTC
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor vs Karadeniz Ereğli BSK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Yozgat Bld Bozokspor and 0.58 for Karadeniz Ereğli BSK, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Yozgat Bld Bozokspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yozgat Bld Bozokspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 24% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Yozgat Bld Bozokspor and 0.58 for Karadeniz Ereğli BSK, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 2–014.5%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Gölcükspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 1-9 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Karaköprü Belediyespor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Adana Adaletgucu · 1-0 (W)
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Beykoz Anadolu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orduspor 1967 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orduspor 1967 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Silivrispor · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-28T12:00:00.000Z · Yozgat Bld Bozokspor 3-0 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK (3. Lig - Play-offs)
- 2026-04-24T17:00:00.000Z · Yozgat Bld Bozokspor 1-0 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK (3. Lig - Play-offs)
- 2026-01-18T10:00:00.000Z · Yozgat Bld Bozokspor 1-1 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK (3. Lig - Group 3)
- 2025-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · Yozgat Bld Bozokspor 1-2 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK (3. Lig - Group 3)
3. Lig - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeni Orduspor | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Çorluspor 1947 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Ayvalikgucu | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Eskişehirspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Etimesgut | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Balıkesirspor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Silifke Belediyespor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Karsiyaka | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yozgat Bld Bozokspor win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.