Turkey · 3. Lig - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd Round17:00

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Monday, 4 May 2026

Yozgat Sehir Stadyumu · Analysis updated 06:46 UTC

Yozgat Bld Bozokspor vs Yeni Orduspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Yozgat Bld Bozokspor and 1.18 for Yeni Orduspor, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Yozgat Bld Bozokspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Yozgat Bld Bozokspor or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Yozgat Bld Bozokspor win44%
Draw26%
Yeni Orduspor win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score54%

Correct score

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Yeni Orduspor away threat

    Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Yozgat Bld Bozokspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.48 goals for Yozgat Bld Bozokspor and 1.18 for Yeni Orduspor, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Yozgat Bld Bozokspor

    Yeni Orduspor

    • 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayvalikgucu · 2-1 (W)
    • 2026-05-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-05-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatsa Belediyespor · 4-1 (W)
    • 2026-04-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatsa Belediyespor · 3-1 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.