Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium · Referee Yuchen Mu, China · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.80 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Yunnan Yukun the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yunnan Yukun home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dalian Zhixing away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 3–15.4%
Recent form
Yunnan Yukun
- 2026-10-24T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Youth Island · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shenyang Urban · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-0 (W)
Dalian Zhixing
- 2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Dalian Zhixing (Super League)
- 2026-04-26T11:35:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Dalian Zhixing (Super League)
- 2025-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Dalian Zhixing (Super League)
- 2025-05-01T07:30:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 2-3 Dalian Zhixing (Super League)
- 2024-10-26T06:30:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 2-0 Dalian Zhixing (League One)
- 2024-06-15T11:00:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 3-0 Dalian Zhixing (League One)
- 2023-10-10T07:30:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Dalian Zhixing (League Two)
- 2023-08-27T11:30:00.000Z · Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Dalian Zhixing (League Two)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.