Yverdon Sport II vs Monthey Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Yverdon Sport II and 1.88 for Monthey, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Monthey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Monthey win

47.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yverdon Sport II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monthey away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monthey to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 22% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Yverdon Sport II and 1.88 for Monthey, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Yverdon Sport II win30%

Draw22%

Monthey win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–29.2%
2–17.1%
0–16.7%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Yverdon Sport II

2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Payerne · 0-1 (L)
2025-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coffrane · 2-2 (D)
2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs La Sarraz-Eclépens · 2-3 (L)
2025-05-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Monthey · 1-4 (L)
2025-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette II · 2-4 (L)

Monthey

2026-10-21T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Langenthal · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sion II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lancy · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina Bern · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Azzurri Bienne · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-05-10T17:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport II 1-4 Monthey (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
2024-11-02T16:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport II 2-1 Monthey (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
2024-03-30T18:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport II 3-0 Monthey (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)
2023-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport II 0-0 Monthey (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azzurri Bienne	11	9	0	2	16	27
2	Prishtina Bern	11	8	2	1	22	26
3	Servette II	11	6	4	1	3	22
4	Lausanne Sport II	11	4	5	2	7	17
5	Portalban / Gletterens	11	5	2	4	6	17
6	Naters	11	5	2	4	-6	17
7	Sion II	11	4	4	3	1	16
8	Monthey	11	3	5	3	1	14
9	Chênois	11	4	2	5	-1	14
10	Lancy	11	4	1	6	-2	13
11	La Chaux-de-Fonds	11	4	1	6	-15	13
12	Echallens	11	3	3	5	-10	12
13	Meyrin	11	3	2	6	2	11
14	Stade Payerne	11	3	2	6	-7	11
15	Coffrane	11	2	4	5	0	10
16	Vevey Sports	11	1	1	9	-17	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Monthey win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.