Stade Municipal · Referee H. Sanli · Analysis updated 09:45 UTC
Yverdon Sport vs Étoile Carouge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.74 for Étoile Carouge, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Yverdon Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yverdon Sport win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yverdon Sport home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Étoile Carouge away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.2%
Recent form
Yverdon Sport
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Nyonnais · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 2-1 (W)
Étoile Carouge
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Kriens · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Winterthur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC WIL 1900 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 1-1 Étoile Carouge (Challenge League)
- 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 3-5 Étoile Carouge (Challenge League)
- 2026-02-20T19:15:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 2-2 Étoile Carouge (Challenge League)
- 2025-11-30T13:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 2-0 Étoile Carouge (Challenge League)
- 2025-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 1-2 Étoile Carouge (Challenge League)
- 2021-06-05T14:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 0-2 Étoile Carouge (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2020-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 6-0 Étoile Carouge (1. Liga Promotion)
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yverdon Sport win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.