Stade Municipal · Referee H. Sanli · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Yverdon Sport vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.73 for Stade Nyonnais, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Yverdon Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yverdon Sport win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yverdon Sport home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Nyonnais away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Yverdon Sport
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Nyonnais · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 2-1 (W)
Stade Nyonnais
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC WIL 1900 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon Sport · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Winterthur · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Kriens · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 4-1 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2026-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 4-1 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2026-02-13T19:15:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 1-0 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2025-10-24T17:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 2-2 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 1-0 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2024-01-16T14:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 1-3 Stade Nyonnais (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-06-12T15:00:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 3-3 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2020-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 1-1 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2019-11-16T16:30:00.000Z · Yverdon Sport 1-1 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yverdon Sport win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.