· Referee D. Casha · Analysis updated 13:22 UTC
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Birkirkara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Zabbar St. Patrick and 1.18 for Birkirkara, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Birkirkara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zabbar St. Patrick home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birkirkara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 33% / 29% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Zabbar St. Patrick and 1.18 for Birkirkara, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Zabbar St. Patrick
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marsaxlokk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gzira United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamrun Spartans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 1-1 (D)
Birkirkara
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zabbar St. Patrick · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernians · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mosta · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Floriana | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Mosta | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 4 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.