· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Widzew II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Ząbkovia Ząbki and 1.50 for Widzew II, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Ząbkovia Ząbki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ząbkovia Ząbki win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ząbkovia Ząbki home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Widzew II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ząbkovia Ząbki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Ząbkovia Ząbki and 1.50 for Widzew II, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Ząbkovia Ząbki
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mławianka Mława · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Łomża · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Weszlo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelikan Łowicz · 2-1 (W)
Widzew II
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Łomża · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Warta Sieradz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Weszlo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelikan Łowicz · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1-0 Widzew II (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1-2 Widzew II (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Ząbkovia Ząbki 4-1 Widzew II (III Liga - Group 1)
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Swit | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Pelikan Łowicz | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ząbkovia Ząbki win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.