Estadio Mariano Matamoros · Analysis updated 07:30 UTC
Zacatepec 1948 vs H2O Purepechas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Zacatepec 1948 and 0.93 for H2O Purepechas, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Zacatepec 1948 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zacatepec 1948 win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zacatepec 1948 home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zacatepec 1948 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Zacatepec 1948 and 0.93 for H2O Purepechas, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.7%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
Zacatepec 1948
- 2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Pioneros de Cancún · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Irapuato · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Reboceros La Piedad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cordobés · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs H2O Purepechas · 1-0 (W)
H2O Purepechas
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres de Alica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Cabos United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Zacatepec 1948 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordobés · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · Zacatepec 1948 1-0 H2O Purepechas (Primera Premier)
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zacatepec 1948 win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.