KGHM Zaglebie Arena · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Zagłębie Lubin II vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Zagłębie Lubin II and 1.18 for Górnik Polkowice, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Zagłębie Lubin II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zagłębie Lubin II win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zagłębie Lubin II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Górnik Polkowice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zagłębie Lubin II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Zagłębie Lubin II and 1.18 for Górnik Polkowice, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Zagłębie Lubin II
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Polkowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barycz Sułów · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Carina Gubin · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ROW Rybnik · 2-2 (D)
Górnik Polkowice
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barycz Sułów · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stal Brzeg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Carina Gubin | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | Ślęza Wrocław | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zagłębie Lubin II win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.