· Analysis updated 02:56 UTC
Zaglebie Lubin vs Miedz Legnica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.18 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Zaglebie Lubin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zaglebie Lubin home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Miedz Legnica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.18 for Miedz Legnica, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Zaglebie Lubin
- 2026-10-18T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedz Legnica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Plock · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 3-2 (W)
Miedz Legnica
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stal Mielec · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Odra Opole · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Rzeszów · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.