Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Ślęza Wrocław Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec and 1.30 for Ślęza Wrocław, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Zaglebie Sosnowiec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win

55.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ślęza Wrocław away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec and 1.30 for Ślęza Wrocław, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win56%

Draw21%

Ślęza Wrocław win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–19.1%
2–07.4%
1–07.0%
3–16.7%

Recent form

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barycz Sułów · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-1 (L)

Ślęza Wrocław

2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-1 Ślęza Wrocław (III Liga - Group 3)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-1 Ślęza Wrocław (Friendlies Clubs)

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	10	1	3	11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	9	3	2	15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	8	4	2	8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	13	6	6	1	9	24
5	ROW Rybnik	14	7	2	5	7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	6	4	4	6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	6	3	5	5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	6	3	5	2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	6	0	7	-4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	5	2	7	1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	13	4	5	4	1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	4	3	7	2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	4	3	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	3	5	6	-10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	4	1	9	-11	13
16	Rakow II	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	3	3	8	-14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	3	3	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Zaglebie Sosnowiec win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.