ArcelorMittal Park · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Warta Gorzów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec and 0.69 for Warta Gorzów, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Zaglebie Sosnowiec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Zaglebie Sosnowiec win
61.1% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Warta Gorzów away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec and 0.69 for Warta Gorzów, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Nysa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barycz Sułów · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-1 (L)
Warta Gorzów
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Brzeg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Katowice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Górnik Polkowice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Warta Gorzów | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 12 | Stal Brzeg | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Kluczbork | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Polonia Nysa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Ślęza Wrocław | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 17 | Rakow II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 | Carina Gubin | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zaglebie Sosnowiec win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.