Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Warta Gorzów Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec and 0.61 for Warta Gorzów, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Zaglebie Sosnowiec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win

66.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Warta Gorzów away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaglebie Sosnowiec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 22% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Zaglebie Sosnowiec and 0.61 for Warta Gorzów, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Zaglebie Sosnowiec win67%

Draw22%

Warta Gorzów win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–015.9%
2–014.5%
1–19.7%
2–18.9%
3–08.9%

Recent form

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica II · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 1-0 (W)

Warta Gorzów

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rakow II · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Nysa · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	14	10	1	3	11	31
2	Sparta Katowice	14	9	3	2	15	30
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	14	8	4	2	8	28
4	Zagłębie Lubin II	14	7	6	1	11	27
5	ROW Rybnik	14	7	2	5	7	23
6	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	14	6	4	4	6	22
7	Górnik Polkowice	14	6	3	5	5	21
8	Barycz Sułów	14	6	3	5	2	21
9	Kluczbork	13	6	0	7	-4	18
10	Miedź Legnica II	14	5	2	7	1	17
11	Stilon Gorzów	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Stal Brzeg	14	4	3	7	2	15
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	14	4	3	7	-6	15
14	Warta Gorzów	14	3	5	6	-10	14
15	Ślęza Wrocław	14	4	1	9	-11	13
16	Rakow II	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Polonia Nysa	14	3	3	8	-14	12
18	Carina Gubin	14	3	3	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Zaglebie Sosnowiec win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.