· Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Zagora vs Križevci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Zagora and 1.83 for Križevci, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Zagora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.8% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zagora home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Križevci away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zagora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Zagora and 1.83 for Križevci, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Zagora
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uljanik · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-4 (L)
Križevci
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Solin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Bjelovar | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Dugo Selo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Jarun | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Trnje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Uljanik | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Slavonija Požega | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Solin | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Zagora | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Križevci | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Lucko | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.