· Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
Zagora vs Uskok Klis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Zagora and 2.25 for Uskok Klis, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Uskok Klis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Uskok Klis win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zagora home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uskok Klis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uskok Klis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 20% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Zagora and 2.25 for Uskok Klis, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Zagora
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uljanik · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-4 (L)
Uskok Klis
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Solin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Bjelovar | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Dugo Selo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Jarun | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Trnje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Uljanik | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Slavonija Požega | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Solin | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Zagora | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Križevci | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Lucko | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uskok Klis win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.