Zagora vs Val Kaštel Stari Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.19 expected goals for Zagora and 1.05 for Val Kaštel Stari, a combined total of 4.24. That distribution gives Zagora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Zagora win

78.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.19 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zagora home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Val Kaštel Stari away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zagora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.19 goals for Zagora and 1.05 for Val Kaštel Stari, a combined 4.24 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Zagora win79%

Draw12%

Val Kaštel Stari win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

3–18.2%
3–07.8%
2–17.7%
2–07.4%
4–16.5%

Recent form

Zagora

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Križevci · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trnje · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 3-1 (W)

Val Kaštel Stari

2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Neretvanac Opuzen · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Junak · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Dubrovnik · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Neretva Metković · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 1-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third NL - Jug table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zagora	30	22	3	5	39	69
2	Neretva Metković	30	19	6	5	32	63
3	HNK Zadar	30	18	6	6	38	60
4	Sloga Mravince	30	13	9	8	11	48
5	Junak	30	12	6	12	3	42
6	Jadran KS	30	11	6	13	-13	39
7	GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica	30	10	8	12	-5	38
8	Vodice	30	10	7	13	-4	37
9	Primorac Biograd	30	10	7	13	-7	37
10	Hrvatski vitez	30	11	3	16	-12	36
11	GOŠK Dubrovnik	30	8	11	11	-2	35
12	Val Kaštel Stari	30	10	5	15	-13	35
13	Sibenik	30	9	7	14	-17	34
14	Omiš	30	9	6	15	-6	33
15	Neretvanac Opuzen	30	9	6	15	-13	33
16	Kamen Ivanbegovina	30	8	6	16	-31	30

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Zagora win, at 78.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.