Zagorets vs Levski Karlovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Zagorets and 1.58 for Levski Karlovo, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Zagorets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zagorets home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Levski Karlovo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zagorets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Zagorets and 1.58 for Levski Karlovo, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Zagorets win40%

Draw23%

Levski Karlovo win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–18.5%
1–28.1%
2–26.7%
1–06.6%

Recent form

Zagorets

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-2 (L)

Levski Karlovo

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	10	10	0	0	21	30
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	9	0	2	15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	8	0	1	12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	10	6	3	1	10	21
5	Yambol 1915	10	5	2	3	14	17
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	5	1	3	5	16
7	Gigant Saedinenie	10	5	1	4	3	16
8	Sozopol	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Rodopa Smolyan	10	4	2	4	-2	14
10	Rozova dolina	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Dimitrovgrad	11	3	2	6	-2	11
12	Botev Plovdiv II	10	2	5	3	-2	11
13	Zagorets	10	3	1	6	-10	10
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	10	1	3	6	-12	6
17	Levski Karlovo	10	2	0	8	-14	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.