Zagorets vs Spartak Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Zagorets and 2.10 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spartak Plovdiv win

59.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zagorets home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Zagorets win20%

Draw21%

Spartak Plovdiv win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–29.9%
1–19.4%
0–28.8%
0–18.4%
1–36.9%

Recent form

Zagorets

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimitrovgrad · 0-2 (L)

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodopa Smolyan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Zagorets 1-4 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2026-02-14T12:00:00.000Z · Zagorets 2-3 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2025-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · Zagorets 0-0 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2025-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · Zagorets 2-0 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2024-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · Zagorets 0-4 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2024-06-01T15:00:00.000Z · Zagorets 1-3 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2023-11-25T12:30:00.000Z · Zagorets 0-0 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2023-05-21T15:00:00.000Z · Zagorets 0-2 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2022-11-12T12:30:00.000Z · Zagorets 5-0 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)
2021-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · Zagorets 1-0 Spartak Plovdiv (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spartak Plovdiv win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.