Dimotiko Stadio Zakynthos · Analysis updated 19:51 UTC
Zakynthos vs Aris Petroupolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Zakynthos and 0.68 for Aris Petroupolis, a combined total of 1.30. That distribution gives Aris Petroupolis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 40%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zakynthos home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 28% / 40% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Zakynthos and 0.68 for Aris Petroupolis, a combined 1.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 14% and both teams to score at 23%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
60%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–027.3%
- 0–118.4%
- 1–017.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Zakynthos
- 2026-10-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panionios · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ellas Syros · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Larisa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 1-1 (D)
Aris Petroupolis
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.