Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Zamalek SC and 0.90 for Al Ahly, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Zamalek SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Zamalek SC win

47.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zamalek SC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahly away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zamalek SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Zamalek SC and 0.90 for Al Ahly, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Zamalek SC win47%

Draw28%

Al Ahly win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.2%
1–112.8%
0–010.5%
2–09.6%
0–19.5%

Recent form

Zamalek SC

2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrojet · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs National Bank of Egypt · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs USM Alger · 1-0 (W)

Al Ahly

2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asyut Petrol · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Abu Qair Semad · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs El Mokawloon · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Smouha SC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pyramids FC	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Al Ahly	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Zamalek SC	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Future FC	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Al Ittihad	6	4	1	1	4	13
6	Ceramica Cleopatra	6	4	0	2	4	12
7	National Bank of Egypt	6	3	0	3	0	9
8	El Mokawloon	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Petrojet	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Masr	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Olympic El Qanah	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	AL Masry	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Smouha SC	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	El Geish	6	2	1	3	-3	7
15	Wadi Degla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
16	Asyut Petrol	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Enppi	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Abu Qair Semad	6	1	0	5	-8	3
19	El Gouna FC	6	0	2	4	-4	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Zamalek SC win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.