· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Zamalek SC vs APR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Zamalek SC and 1.22 for APR, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Zamalek SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zamalek SC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zamalek SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Zamalek SC and 1.22 for APR, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Zamalek SC
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrojet · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs National Bank of Egypt · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs USM Alger · 1-0 (W)
APR
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Marines · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JSK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JSK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vipers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.