Cairo International Stadium · Referee P. Atcho · Analysis updated 16:12 UTC
Zamalek SC vs USM Alger Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Zamalek SC and 0.68 for USM Alger, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives Zamalek SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.2% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zamalek SC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zamalek SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 36% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Zamalek SC and 0.68 for USM Alger, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 28%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 1–018.5%
- 0–114.7%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
Zamalek SC
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrojet · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs National Bank of Egypt · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs USM Alger · 1-0 (W)
USM Alger
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.