Somhlolo National Stadium · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Zambia U20 vs Mauritius U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Zambia U20 and 0.89 for Mauritius U20, a combined total of 4.04. That distribution gives Zambia U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zambia U20 win
81.2% probability
Expected goals
3.15 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zambia U20 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mauritius U20 away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zambia U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for Zambia U20 and 0.89 for Mauritius U20, a combined 4.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.1%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–17.8%
- 4–07.2%
Recent form
Zambia U20
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Namibia U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa U20 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botswana U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malawi U20 · 2-0 (W)
Mauritius U20
- 2026-09-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mozambique U20 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Seychelles U20 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Namibia U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2022-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eswatini U20 · 0-7 (L)
- 2022-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Botswana U20 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
COSAFA U20 Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Namibia U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Mozambique U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Seychelles U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritius U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | South Africa U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Angola U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Eswatini U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho U20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Zambia U20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Malawi U20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Comoros U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 4 | Botswana U20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zambia U20 win, at 81.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.