Stade Larbi Zaouli · Referee S. Nabadda · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Zambia W vs Egypt W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.06 expected goals for Zambia W and 0.96 for Egypt W, a combined total of 5.02. That distribution gives Zambia W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zambia W win
88.3% probability
Expected goals
4.06 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zambia W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zambia W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 7% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.06 goals for Zambia W and 0.96 for Egypt W, a combined 5.02 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 59%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–07.5%
- 3–07.3%
- 4–17.2%
- 3–17.1%
- 5–06.0%
Recent form
Zambia W
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uganda W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uganda W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Malawi W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nigeria W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt W · 6-0 (W)
Egypt W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Algeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kenya W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Burkina Faso W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 1 | Zambia W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Nigeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Malawi W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Egypt W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Cameroon W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Ghana W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Mali W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Cape Verde W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zambia W win, at 88.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.