· Analysis updated 05:37 UTC
Zamora FC vs Club Atletico Barinas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Zamora FC and 1.08 for Club Atletico Barinas, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Zamora FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zamora FC win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
2.83 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zamora FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Atletico Barinas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zamora FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Zamora FC and 1.08 for Club Atletico Barinas, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–07.6%
- 1–16.1%
Recent form
Zamora FC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 2-0 (W)
Club Atletico Barinas
- 2026-10-25T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Frontera · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Zamora FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T19:30:00.000Z · Zamora FC 1-3 Club Atletico Barinas (Copa Venezuela)
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Lara | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 | Trujillanos FC | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zamora FC win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.