Carolina de Barinas · Referee R. Gonzalez · Analysis updated 16:57 UTC
Zamora FC vs UCV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Zamora FC and 1.40 for UCV, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives UCV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zamora FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UCV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Zamora FC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 2-0 (W)
UCV
- 2026-09-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Guaira · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Zuliano · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · Zamora FC 2-0 UCV (Primera División)
- 2026-02-28T21:00:00.000Z · Zamora FC 1-2 UCV (Primera División)
- 2025-08-31T21:00:00.000Z · Zamora FC 1-0 UCV (Primera División)
- 2025-03-29T21:30:00.000Z · Zamora FC 0-1 UCV (Primera División)
- 2024-08-21T00:30:00.000Z · Zamora FC 3-2 UCV (Primera División)
- 2024-03-02T19:00:00.000Z · Zamora FC 2-2 UCV (Primera División)
- 2023-07-15T00:15:00.000Z · Zamora FC 0-5 UCV (Primera División)
- 2023-04-30T22:15:00.000Z · Zamora FC 1-0 UCV (Primera División)
- 2022-09-01T21:00:00.000Z · Zamora FC 1-1 UCV (Primera División)
- 2022-03-17T23:15:00.000Z · Zamora FC 2-0 UCV (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.