· Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Zanaco and 1.18 for NAPSA Stars, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives NAPSA Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zanaco home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NAPSA Stars away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NAPSA Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Zanaco and 1.18 for NAPSA Stars, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Zanaco
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NAPSA Stars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Konkola Blades · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nchanga Rangers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs NAPSA Stars · 0-2 (L)
NAPSA Stars
- 2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Prison Leopards · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zanaco · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutondo Stars · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Konkola Blades · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zanaco · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.