· Analysis updated 23:24 UTC
Zanaco vs Nkana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Zanaco and 1.14 for Nkana, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Zanaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zanaco home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nkana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zanaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Zanaco and 1.14 for Nkana, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Zanaco
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NAPSA Stars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Konkola Blades · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nchanga Rangers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs NAPSA Stars · 0-2 (L)
Nkana
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ZESCO United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nchanga Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NAPSA Stars · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zanaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ZESCO United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nchanga Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nkana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kabwe Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Power Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Arrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Konkola Blades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Roan United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NAPSA Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Green Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nkwazi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Trident | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mutondo Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Makeni All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Chirundu Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.