· Analysis updated 22:10 UTC
Zaqatala vs Baku Sportinq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Zaqatala and 1.52 for Baku Sportinq, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Zaqatala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zaqatala win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zaqatala home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Baku Sportinq away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaqatala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Zaqatala and 1.52 for Baku Sportinq, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Zaqatala
- 2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Baku Sportinq · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mingəçevir · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baku Sportinq · 0-3 (L)
Baku Sportinq
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Səbail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaqatala · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zaqatala win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.