· Analysis updated 16:07 UTC
Zaragoza vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Zaragoza and 1.78 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Athletic Club win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zaragoza home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletic Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 24% / 23% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Zaragoza and 1.78 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Zaragoza
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cartagena · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Torremolinos · 4-3 (W)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.