Ibercaja Estadio · Referee M. Garrote · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Zaragoza vs Teruel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Zaragoza and 0.77 for Teruel, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Zaragoza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zaragoza win
74.4% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zaragoza home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Teruel away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zaragoza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Zaragoza and 0.77 for Teruel, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 3–09.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Zaragoza
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cartagena · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Torremolinos · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 1-0 (W)
Teruel
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Majadahonda · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Hercules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zaragoza win, at 74.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.