Zavrč vs Rače Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Zavrč and 1.56 for Rače, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Rače the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zavrč home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rače away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rače to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Zavrč and 1.56 for Rače, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Zavrč win33%

Draw25%

Rače win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–29.0%
0–18.5%
2–17.7%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Zavrč

2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Brežice · 0-6 (L)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rače · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Podvinci · 3-2 (W)
2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fužinar · 1-4 (L)

Rače

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Ormoz · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fužinar · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Limbuš Pekre · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ljutomer · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Podvinci · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. SNL - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Odranci	10	8	2	0	18	26
2	Fužinar	10	6	1	3	10	19
3	NK Ormoz	10	6	1	3	6	19
4	Šmartno	10	6	1	3	5	19
5	Hajdina	10	4	4	2	3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	10	4	3	3	5	15
7	Videm	10	4	2	4	-2	14
8	Podvinci	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Rače	10	3	4	3	1	13
10	Korotan Prevalje	10	2	5	3	-1	11
11	Dobrovce	10	3	0	7	-12	9
12	Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	-4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	10	2	2	6	-13	8
14	Šampion Celje	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.