· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Legia Warszawa II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Zawisza Bydgoszcz and 1.20 for Legia Warszawa II, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Zawisza Bydgoszcz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zawisza Bydgoszcz win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legia Warszawa II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zawisza Bydgoszcz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Zawisza Bydgoszcz and 1.20 for Legia Warszawa II, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Znicz Pruszków · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Hutnik Kraków · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 3-3 (D)
Legia Warszawa II
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 26 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Hutnik Kraków | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 10 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Sokół Kleczew | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zawisza Bydgoszcz win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.