Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Zawisza Bydgoszcz and 1.26 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Zawisza Bydgoszcz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zawisza Bydgoszcz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Zawisza Bydgoszcz and 1.26 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Zawisza Bydgoszcz win44%

Draw25%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–09.3%
2–19.1%
0–17.6%
1–27.4%

Recent form

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Znicz Pruszków · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-0 (D)

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Resovia Rzeszów · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	13	7	6	0	12	27
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	13	5	5	3	2	20
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.