Zbrojovka Brno II vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno II and 1.63 for Frýdek-Místek, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Zbrojovka Brno II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Zbrojovka Brno II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frýdek-Místek away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Zbrojovka Brno II and 1.63 for Frýdek-Místek, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Zbrojovka Brno II win40%

Draw23%

Frýdek-Místek win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–18.4%
1–28.0%
2–26.9%
1–06.0%

Recent form

Zbrojovka Brno II

2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Líšeň II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 0-1 (L)

Frýdek-Místek

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uničov · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
2	Uničov	13	9	2	2	13	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	8	3	3	10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	8	3	3	8	27
5	Hranice	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	7	1	5	6	22
7	Uherský Brod	14	6	3	5	1	21
8	Vítkovice	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Slovácko II	13	5	3	5	6	18
10	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Hodonín	14	5	2	7	2	17
12	Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	-13	17
13	Zlín II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
14	Karviná II	13	4	2	7	-4	14
15	Havířov	14	2	5	7	-11	11
16	Blansko	14	2	5	7	-14	11
17	Vsetín	13	3	1	9	-16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	2	3	8	-8	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.