· Analysis updated 08:20 UTC
Zbrojovka Brno II vs Hodonín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno II and 1.05 for Hodonín, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Zbrojovka Brno II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zbrojovka Brno II win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zbrojovka Brno II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hodonín away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 49.5% vs market 41.6%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 41.6% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.29 | 72.2% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 47.5% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 25.9% | 25.9% | 3.86 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 74.1% | 1.35 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.2% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.4% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Zbrojovka Brno II
- 2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Líšeň II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 0-1 (L)
Hodonín
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Unie Hlubina · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vsetín · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Karviná II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 0-1 Hodonín (3. liga - MSFL)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 0-1 Hodonín (3. liga - MSFL)
- 2025-09-21T08:15:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 1-0 Hodonín (3. liga - MSFL)
- 2025-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 3-4 Hodonín (3. liga - MSFL)
- 2024-09-22T08:15:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 3-0 Hodonín (3. liga - MSFL)
- 2022-04-23T08:15:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 0-2 Hodonín (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2021-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 3-1 Hodonín (4. liga - Divizie D)
- 2020-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno II 3-1 Hodonín (4. liga - Divizie D)
3. liga - MSFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Uničov | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Frýdek-Místek | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| 5 | Hranice | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Sigma Olomouc II | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Uherský Brod | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Vítkovice | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 | Slovácko II | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 10 | Unie Hlubina | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Hodonín | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | Vrchovina | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 17 |
| 13 | Zlín II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Karviná II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Havířov | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Blansko | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 17 | Vsetín | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zbrojovka Brno II win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.