Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska · Referee P. Orel · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Zbrojovka Brno vs Artis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 0.76 for Artis, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Zbrojovka Brno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zbrojovka Brno win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Zbrojovka Brno home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Artis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 58.2% vs market 47.3%, edge +10.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +10.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 42.8% | 44.1% | 2.27 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.4% | 5.43 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 56.0% | 55.9% | 1.79 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.9% | 81.6% | 1.23 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -10.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Zbrojovka Brno
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mlada Boleslav · 0-2 (L)
Artis
- 2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vítkovice · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 Artis (Czech Liga)
- 2026-03-16T17:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 2-0 Artis (FNL)
- 2025-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 2-2 Artis (FNL)
- 2025-04-19T10:30:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 4-1 Artis (FNL)
- 2024-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 1-1 Artis (FNL)
- 2024-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 1-1 Artis (FNL)
- 2023-10-27T15:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 3-0 Artis (FNL)
- 2022-03-18T16:00:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 1-3 Artis (FNL)
- 2021-08-22T08:15:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 Artis (FNL)
- 2020-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · Zbrojovka Brno 2-3 Artis (Friendlies Clubs)
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Mlada Boleslav | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Sigma Olomouc | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 4 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Zbrojovka Brno | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Teplice | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Plzen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Bohemians 1905 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Artis | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zbrojovka Brno win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.